Yes, the U.S. tomato market is tight in late August 2026, but it is more accurate to call it a supply shortage in several major tomato categories rather than a complete nationwide disappearance of tomatoes. Current produce reports say round tomatoes are especially scarce, while supplies of Roma, grape, and cherry tomatoes vary by region. On August 18, Markon reported that total tomato volume was lower and markets were moving higher, while California was at peak round-tomato harvest.
The situation follows a difficult 2026 growing season. Florida lost an estimated 80% of its tomato production during severe winter weather, with projected damages of about $164 million, while drought and disease pressure also reduced production in important Mexican growing regions.
Is there really a tomato shortage in the U.S. right now?
There is a real supply shortage in parts of the U.S. tomato market, but tomatoes are not uniformly scarce across every region or variety. Markon reported in August that California was harvesting round tomatoes at peak volume while Tennessee was in full production, even as overall market volume remained lower and prices were moving upward.
That regional difference explains why one grocery store can have a reasonable supply while another has fewer tomatoes or higher prices. Fresh tomatoes are supplied through several production regions, and harvest timing changes throughout the year.
USDA market information also showed light tomato supplies in several eastern markets in mid-August. In Alabama, for example, supplies were reported as light, while Eastern Tennessee and Virginia’s Eastern Shore also had fairly light supplies.
So if you are seeing fewer tomatoes at your local store, you are not necessarily imagining it. The shortage is real, but its severity depends on the tomato type and where your tomatoes are coming from.
Why did the 2026 Tomatoes Shortage happen?
The 2026 tomato shortage developed after damaging weather in Florida and difficult growing conditions in Mexico reduced supplies at the same time. The combination was unusually disruptive because the two regions are major sources of fresh tomatoes for the U.S. market.
Florida suffered a major winter freeze in late December and January. The resulting damage affected an estimated 80% of Florida’s tomato production, according to reporting based on agricultural estimates, with projected losses of approximately $164 million.
Mexico experienced a different set of problems. Drought reduced irrigation water during the planting period in Sinaloa, one of Mexico’s important tomato-growing areas. Heavy rainfall later created conditions favorable for early blight, adding disease pressure to already stressed crops.
The timing mattered. When production problems occur in two major supply regions during the same season, buyers have fewer alternatives, so even moderate disruptions can create a much tighter market.
Why are Mexican tomatoes especially important to U.S. shoppers?
Mexico is a critical supplier of fresh tomatoes to the United States, so lower Mexican shipments can quickly affect American grocery prices. About 90% of U.S. tomato imports come from Mexico, according to reporting on the 2026 market disruption.
USDA’s Economic Research Service reported that total U.S. tomato import volume was down approximately 16% year to date through February 2026, while exports were down about 11%. USDA also reported that tomato imports from Mexico fell approximately 15% from August 2025 through February 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
That reduction matters because fresh tomatoes are highly dependent on a continuous supply chain. If Mexican field-grown production falls while Florida is recovering from freeze damage, U.S. buyers must rely more heavily on California, other domestic growing regions, greenhouse production, and whatever Mexican supplies remain available.
The result is not necessarily empty shelves everywhere. It is often higher prices, fewer sizes, substitutions between varieties, and uneven availability.
Read More:Why Are Grapes So Expensive
Which tomatoes are in the shortest supply?
Round tomatoes are currently among the most difficult fresh tomatoes to source, while Roma tomatoes are generally more available but are still experiencing tight supplies. Markon’s August 18 market update reported peak round production in California but lower total market volume, while Mexican production remained below U.S. grower production.
Round tomatoes
Round tomatoes are particularly sensitive to regional production changes because they are widely used by grocery stores, restaurants, and foodservice buyers.
In August, California’s round tomato harvest was at its peak, with jumbo and extra-large sizes especially plentiful. At the same time, Tennessee was in full production and Michigan was increasing production.
That means the round tomato market is tight rather than completely empty. California is helping compensate for weaker production elsewhere.
Roma tomatoes
Roma tomatoes are also affected, but their supply picture is somewhat better than round tomatoes in some markets.
Markon reported moderate Mexican Roma volume in August and expected a slight improvement over the following two weeks. California was also supplying large Roma tomatoes.
Earlier in 2026, however, Roma tomato wholesale prices reached their highest levels in 25 years, according to reporting citing Rabobank analyst David Magaña.
Grape and cherry tomatoes
Grape and cherry tomatoes have a different production pattern from large field-grown tomatoes, so their shortage is not identical to the round-tomato problem.
Markon reported that East Coast grape and cherry tomato volume had tapered in August, while Mexican production was lighter and expected to increase within roughly three to four weeks.
This is why shoppers may find cherry tomatoes in stock even when conventional slicing tomatoes are expensive.
Why are tomatoes so expensive even when stores still have them?
Tomato prices can remain high when available supply falls below normal even if stores continue receiving shipments every day. A grocery store does not need to run completely out of tomatoes for wholesale prices to increase.
The 2026 market provides a clear example. Florida’s production losses removed a substantial amount of supply, while drought and disease reduced Mexican production. Buyers then competed for tomatoes from California and other regions.
Wholesale prices for Roma and mature-green tomatoes reached their highest levels in 25 years earlier in the year, according to Rabobank’s analysis cited by the Los Angeles Times. Those prices also remained elevated for more than two months, an unusually long period.
Transportation adds another layer. Fresh tomatoes must be harvested, packed, cooled, transported and sold quickly because their shelf life is limited. When supply is tight, every additional logistics cost becomes more noticeable in the final price.
USDA’s August 2026 Food Price Outlook shows that grocery food prices overall remain elevated, although fresh vegetable prices fell 1.6% from June to July 2026. That broader vegetable decline does not mean every vegetable, including tomatoes, is becoming cheaper at the same rate.
When will the tomato shortage improve?
Tomato availability should improve unevenly as California, Mexico, Michigan, Florida, and other growing regions move through their production cycles. Markon expected Mexican tomato supplies to increase in September, while East Coast grape and cherry production was also expected to rebound.
California is already providing an important source of relief because its round tomato harvest was at peak production in August. Michigan was also ramping up, while Tennessee was already in full production.
Mexico is another key piece of the recovery. Markon expected supplies from Baja and Central Mexico to increase in September, although the timing and quality can vary with field conditions.
That means you should expect gradual improvement rather than one specific day when the shortage suddenly ends. Different tomato varieties recover at different times because their growing regions and harvest schedules are not identical.
Why Florida’s tomato crop still matters months after the freeze
Florida’s winter freeze can affect tomato availability long after the actual cold weather has passed because replacing a damaged crop requires a new production cycle. The January 2026 freeze damaged approximately 80% of Florida’s tomato production, creating a large supply gap that other growing regions had to help fill.
Florida’s importance is particularly visible in mature-green tomatoes. When Florida production falls, buyers have to source additional volume elsewhere, which can increase pressure on California, Mexico, and other domestic suppliers.
The recovery therefore depends not only on warmer weather but on when replacement fields are planted, mature, harvested, packed and shipped.
What changed with Mexican tomato trade in 2026?
U.S. trade policy added another pressure point to the fresh-tomato market after the United States resumed antidumping duties on fresh tomato imports from Mexico in 2025. USDA’s April 2026 Vegetables and Pulses Outlook reported that the United States withdrew from the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement on July 14, 2025, bringing antidumping duties back into effect.
The U.S. International Trade Commission also determined in June 2026 that there were not changed circumstances sufficient to revoke the existing antidumping order on fresh tomatoes from Mexico. The order therefore remained in place.
Trade policy is not the only reason for the 2026 shortage, and it should not be presented as one. Weather damage, drought, disease pressure and production timing have all played major roles.
But when imported supply is already under pressure, additional costs or reductions in import volume can make the market tighter.
Are canned tomatoes affected by the same shortage?
Processing tomatoes used for canned tomatoes, tomato paste and sauces follow a different production cycle from fresh-market tomatoes and were less affected by the early-2026 fresh tomato disruption. Central California’s processing tomato harvest occurs later in the summer, and reporting cited Rabobank analysis that these tomatoes had not been affected in the same way as fresh-market varieties.
That distinction matters if you are buying tomatoes for cooking rather than fresh salads.
A shortage of fresh Roma or slicing tomatoes does not automatically mean canned tomato products will experience the same shortage. Processing tomatoes are grown, harvested and contracted for a different market, so their supply conditions can move independently from fresh tomatoes.
Sources: USDA Economic Research Service | USDA Agricultural Marketing Service | U.S. International Trade Commission | Markon | Los Angeles Times
